mick wrote:

Or is it? Economists are forecasting GDP growth in the 4th qtr of 0.2%
to 0.4%.

They missed!

However the recession officially began with 3 consecutive
negative growth qtrs.What if the 1st qtr of 2010 is negative? Are we
back in recession then? or do we have to wait another 6 months.

ISTR it's *two* consecutive quarters, not three, but in any case...

I was just thinking something similar, and about to post the question: why
does it require two consecutive quarters for it to be considered that a
recession has started, and yet only one quarter of positive growth to exit
that recession.

However, maybe I am misunderstanding the 'two months' aspect. Perhaps a
recession is defined simply as 'two or more quarters of negative growth',
in which case the second of your two possibilities would apply i.e. it
would be a new recession (potentially).

You would think it would be more neutral, though, to deem a recession ended
on condition of two quarters of positive growth.